TikTok’s attempt to overturn a law that would lead to its ban or sale in the US starting in early 2025 has been denied.
The company had hoped a federal appeals court would find the law unconstitutional, arguing that it would significantly infringe on the free speech of its 170 million US users.
However, the court decided to uphold the law, which it described as the result of thorough bipartisan efforts by Congress and multiple presidents.
TikTok is now preparing to escalate the matter to the US Supreme Court, the nation’s highest legal authority.
The US government advocates for TikTok’s sale or ban due to alleged ties between its owners and the Chinese government, claims consistently refuted by TikTok and its parent company, Bytedance.
The court acknowledged that the law was deliberately designed to address control issues by a foreign adversary, underlining it as part of a broader initiative to mitigate a well-documented national security threat from the People’s Republic of China.
Yet, TikTok indicates that its legal challenges are far from over.
“The Supreme Court has a long-standing history of protecting Americans’ right to free speech, and we expect they will do just that on this important constitutional issue,” stated a TikTok spokesperson.
The spokesperson also criticized the law as being founded on incorrect, faulty, and speculative data, adding that a ban would infringe on the free speech of US citizens.
Donald Trump’s recent win in the 2024 US Presidential Election might also offer TikTok a new opportunity.
Despite his unsuccessful attempts to ban the app in 2020, he has indicated post-election that he would oppose the TikTok ban.
Trump’s inauguration is scheduled for January 20, just a day after the new law mandates TikTok’s ban or sale.
However, it’s uncertain whether he will fulfill his pre-election promise.
Cornell University’s Professor James Grimmelmann commented that the president-elect would face significant challenges in providing TikTok any relief.
“The anti-China sentiment in the US Congress is very strong, so there are now substantial constituencies in both parties that want TikTok to be restricted from the US market,” he told BBC News.
Both TikTok users and competitors have closely followed the legal proceedings.
Tiffany Cianci, a small business advocate and TikTok creator, expressed her lack of surprise at the court’s recent decision but said she would not be moving her content to rival platforms like Instagram.
“I’m not going to do what they want and take my content to their platforms where it’s not as successful, where it’s more likely to be censored, and where I am more likely to have less control over my audience,” she said.
Meanwhile, other platforms are gearing up for a potential social media landscape without TikTok.
Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads, is actively developing alternatives to TikTok’s short video format across its platforms, incorporating changes that echo TikTok’s features amid uncertainties about its future in the US.
eMarketer’s principal analyst, Jasmine Enberg, predicts significant disruption if TikTok’s appeal fails at the Supreme Court and a ban is implemented.
She noted, “Such a development would benefit platforms like Meta, YouTube, and Snap, but would adversely affect content creators and small businesses that depend on TikTok for their livelihood.”
However, replicating TikTok won’t be straightforward, according to Cory Johnson, Chief Market Strategist at Epistrophy Capital Research. Johnson emphasized that TikTok’s success is powered by sophisticated AI and large-scale data handling, necessitating a substantial and costly technical setup.
Johnson also highlighted the potential risks associated with TikTok’s targeted advertising and China’s data regulations and cited Elon Musk’s algorithm modifications on his platform X, formerly known as Twitter, as a warning.
In the recent US elections, Musk’s political posts garnered more attention than all US political campaign ads on X’s platform, according to Johnson.
“We have very real and very recent experience in America with a social media network tweaking its algorithms to favor certain voices,” he added.
