Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has declared victory in Thailand’s general election, as preliminary results showed his conservative Bhumjaithai Party opening a commanding lead over its rivals.
With around 90% of votes counted, Bhumjaithai is projected to win 194 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives, placing it well ahead of the reformist People’s Party, which is forecast to secure 116 seats.
Speaking after the results began to emerge, Anutin said his success belonged to “all Thais, no matter whether you voted for us or not”, after his party outperformed opinion polls that had consistently put the People’s Party in the lead.
People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut appeared to concede defeat, saying he was prepared to serve in opposition if Anutin was able to form a government.
The election was called in December after the collapse of Anutin’s coalition government, which had lasted just three months.
While no party is expected to secure an outright majority, the scale of Bhumjaithai’s lead makes it highly likely Anutin will remain in office. The party is on course to win more than twice the number of seats it secured in the 2023 election.
Thai elections are often unpredictable, and this contest proved no exception.
The outcome represents a major setback for the People’s Party, which had hoped to build on its victory three years ago, when it won the popular vote under its former name, Move Forward, but was prevented from forming a government by the unelected Senate.
A much-anticipated “orange wave” of support for the party’s young, reform-minded candidates failed to materialise, leaving the movement pushed into second place by Anutin’s pragmatic conservatives.
The reformists will now remain in opposition, avoiding a potential constitutional crisis that many had feared could arise had they won again and once more been blocked from taking power.
The result has prompted renewed scrutiny of opinion polling in Thailand, which has frequently failed to predict election outcomes accurately.
Analysts are now examining how Anutin transformed Bhumjaithai—once a small, provincially rooted party whose name means “Thai Pride”—into a dominant electoral force.
After two brief border conflicts with Cambodia last year, Bhumjaithai positioned itself as the standard-bearer for conservative voters, appealing to patriotic sentiment and pledging to defend traditional institutions such as the monarchy and the military.
Anutin campaigned on nationalist rhetoric and populist financial pledges, but his success also reflected his ability to secure the backing of influential local power-brokers.
Under Thailand’s electoral system, 80% of parliamentary seats are decided in single-member constituencies on a first-past-the-post basis, with the remaining 20% allocated proportionally.
The party also broadened its appeal by placing prominent technocrats with reputations for competence at the centre of its campaign.
The People’s Party performed more strongly in the proportional vote but appears to have lost some support compared with 2023 and struggled to overcome its weaker local networks.
The third major contender, Pheu Thai—the long-dominant party associated with the Shinawatra family—is projected to win 86 seats, a sharp decline from its previous showing.
Once a powerhouse of Thai electoral politics, Pheu Thai formed a coalition government after Move Forward was blocked in 2023, but two of its prime ministers were later removed by the constitutional court.
Its standing has since been weakened by criticism over its handling of tensions with Cambodia and by the imprisonment of its patriarch, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, last September.
Economic concerns weighed heavily on voters, with household debt at record levels and economic growth lagging behind regional competitors.
“I want the economy to improve and I don’t want big factories to relocate to our neighbouring countries,” civil servant Phananya Bunthong told the BBC, referring to Thailand’s growing competition with Vietnam.
The People’s Party campaigned on sweeping reforms, including reducing the power of major corporations and the military, streamlining the bureaucracy and modernising the education system. Since its founding eight years ago, the movement has enjoyed strong backing among younger voters.
“I want change. I don’t want things to be the same,” said 28-year-old Kittitat Daengkongkho.
However, the results suggest that this agenda resonated less with older voters and those outside urban centres than Bhumjaithai’s simpler promises of financial support.
Alongside the general election, voters also took part in a referendum on whether to reform the 2017 constitution, drafted under military rule.
Critics argue the charter grants excessive power to unelected bodies such as the courts and the Senate, undermining democratic governance. With more than 90% of votes counted, preliminary results indicated that about 65% of voters supported constitutional reform.
