Thailand could lose between $7 billion and $8 billion due to potential US tariffs, according to senior officials who spoke on Wednesday about equalizing levies between the two nations and strategies for upcoming trade negotiations.
Vuttikrai Leewiraphan, the permanent secretary for commerce, mentioned that Thai semiconductor exports might face a 25% tariff by the United States. This comes as US President Donald Trump is expected to announce new trade barriers soon.
“Thailand imposes tariffs that are about 11% higher than those in the US for agricultural and industrial products,” Mr. Vuttikrai said.
“So, if we are hit with an additional 11%, we could see losses of about $7 billion to $8 billion.”
To minimize economic impacts, Thailand plans to adopt a comprehensive approach to trade negotiations, he explained.
In an effort to avoid US tariffs, Thailand aims to increase its imports of corn, soybeans, crude oil, and ethane to reduce its trade surplus with the United States. Exports play a critical role in sustaining Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.
According to Commerce Ministry data, Thailand maintained a $35.4 billion trade surplus with the United States last year, while the US reported a $45.6 billion deficit with Thailand.
The United States is Thailand’s largest export market, primarily for electronics, machinery, and agricultural products. With Trump increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, Thai business leaders have expressed concerns that their market might be flooded with inexpensive imports from nearby countries.
Nomura Holdings Inc. suggests that trade-dependent Thailand could be the most adversely affected in the region due to its significant involvement in agriculture and transport—two sectors highly susceptible to reciprocal tariffs.
Mr. Vuttikrai noted that Thai food and energy companies are looking to ramp up investments in the US, particularly in Republican-dominated “red states.” Thai companies have already invested around $17 billion in the US, creating approximately 11,000 jobs.
He also mentioned that Thailand plans to import more from the US and has prepared proposals that include reducing US import tariffs on certain goods and implementing unspecified non-tariff measures.
He noted that the recent US tariff increases on steel and aluminum have impacted Thai exports, with a noticeable decrease in new orders.
Looking ahead, Thailand intends to diversify its export markets to lessen the impact of US tariffs, he added.
InnovestX Securities reported that the reciprocal tariffs likely to be announced by President Trump could reduce Thai GDP by up to 1.2 percentage points from an expected 2.5%.
