Japan’s ruling coalition has lost its majority in the country’s upper house, delivering a significant blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s leadership. Despite the setback, Ishiba has confirmed he has no intention of stepping down.
Sunday’s closely watched election unfolded amid mounting frustration over rising living costs and concerns about U.S. trade policies.
The coalition, led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito, failed to secure the 50 seats needed to retain control of the 248-seat chamber. With just one seat left to be declared, national broadcaster NHK reported the bloc had won only 47.
“I solemnly accept the harsh result,” Ishiba said after polls closed, adding that his administration’s focus would remain on critical trade negotiations.
The coalition had already lost its majority in the more powerful lower house last year. This latest loss further undermines the government’s ability to push through legislation and leaves Ishiba politically vulnerable.
Half of the upper house seats were contested in this election, with members serving six-year terms. Analysts say support for right-wing parties, including the populist Sanseito, chipped away at the LDP’s traditional voter base.
“Prime Minister Ishiba is considered not conservative enough by many supporters of the former Prime Minister [Shinzo] Abe,” said Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer in Japanese Studies at Kanda University of International Studies.
“They think that he just doesn’t have the nationalistic views on history, he doesn’t have the strong views against China that Abe had.”
Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, led the LDP during two separate terms from 2006 to 2007 and from 2012 to 2020. Since his departure, factions within the party have pushed for more hardline policies, creating internal divisions.
Hall noted that Sanseito has attracted voters with rhetoric previously unheard in the upper house.
“They’re saying things that haven’t been said in public before by members of the upper house,” he said, referencing the party’s embrace of “conspiracy theories, anti-foreign statements, [and] very strong revisionist views about history.”
Founded on centre-right principles, the LDP has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, albeit with frequent changes in leadership. But Ishiba has struggled to energize the party’s base or address concerns about inflation, particularly rising rice prices, and lingering political scandals.
The loss echoes historical patterns. The last three LDP leaders who failed to secure an upper house majority resigned within two months, leading many to speculate that Ishiba could face similar pressure.
Potential successors are already being discussed. These include Sanae Takaichi, who finished second to Ishiba in last year’s leadership contest; Takayuki Kobayashi, a former economic security minister; and Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
Analysts warn that any leadership shake-up could trigger political instability, particularly at a critical juncture in Japan’s ongoing trade talks with the United States.
Despite the political turbulence, financial markets appeared unfazed. The Tokyo Stock Exchange was closed Monday for a public holiday, but the yen strengthened against other major currencies, suggesting the outcome had been anticipated by investors.
Much of the coalition’s support appears to have been siphoned off by Sanseito, a small right-leaning party that gained traction during the Covid-19 pandemic through YouTube, spreading conspiracy theories about vaccines and a so-called global elite.
The party’s “Japanese First” slogan and anti-immigration rhetoric resonated with voters concerned about Japan’s increasing foreign population and rising costs. Immigration and foreign residency policies became hot-button issues throughout the campaign.
Traditionally known for its isolationist stance and strict immigration controls, Japan has seen record increases in both tourists and foreign residents in recent years. The influx has driven up prices and stoked resentment among some Japanese citizens who feel the country is being exploited by outsiders.
Amid these tensions, Ishiba last week launched a task force to address “crimes or nuisance behaviours committed by some foreign nationals,” including concerns related to immigration, land purchases, and unpaid social insurance.
As the political fallout unfolds, all eyes remain on Ishiba’s next move, and whether the ruling party will rally behind him or prepare for a new face to lead amid growing discontent.
